Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand

The last interglacial (LIG; ~130 to ~118 thousand years ago, ka) was the last time global sea level rose well above the present level. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contributions were insufficient to explain the highstand, so that substantial Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) reduction is implied. However, the nature and drivers of GrIS and AIS reductions remain enigmatic, even though they may be critical for understanding future sea-level rise. Here we complement existing records with new data, and reveal that the LIG contained an AIS-derived highstand from ~129.5 to ~125 ka, a lowstand centred on 125–124 ka, and joint AIS + GrIS contributions from ~123.5 to ~118 ka. Moreover, a dual substructure within the first highstand suggests temporal variability in the AIS contributions. Implied rates of sea-level rise are high (up to several meters per century; m c−1), and lend credibility to high rates inferred by ice modelling under certain ice-shelf instability parameterisations

Millennial atmospheric CO2 changes linked to ocean ventilation modes over past 150,000 years

Ice core measurements show diverse atmospheric CO2 variations—increasing, decreasing or remaining stable—during millennial-scale North Atlantic cold periods called stadials. The reasons for these contrasting trends remain elusive. Ventilation of carbon-rich deep oceans can profoundly affect atmospheric CO2, but its millennial-scale history is poorly constrained. Here we present a well-dated high-resolution deep Atlantic acidity record over the past 150,000 years, which reveals five hitherto undetected modes of stadial ocean ventilation with different consequences for deep-sea carbon storage and associated atmospheric CO2 changes. Our data provide observational evidence to show that strong and often volumetrically extensive Southern Ocean ventilation released substantial amounts of deep-sea carbon during stadials when atmospheric CO2 rose prominently. By contrast, other stadials were characterized by weak ventilation via both Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, which promoted respired carbon accumulation and thus curtailed or reversed deep-sea carbon losses, resulting in diminished rises or even declines in atmospheric CO2. Our findings demonstrate that millennial-scale changes in deep-sea carbon storage and atmospheric CO2 are modulated by multiple ocean ventilation modes through the interplay of the two polar regions, rather than by the Southern Ocean alone, which is critical for comprehensive understanding of past and future carbon cycle adjustments to climate change

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Holocene hydro-climatic variability in the Mediterranean: A synthetic multi-proxy reconstruction

Here we identify and analyze proxy data interpreted to reflect hydro-climatic variability over the last 10,000 years from the Mediterranean region to (1) outline millennial and multi-centennial-scale trends and (2) identify regional patterns of hydro-climatic variability. A total of 47 lake, cave, and marine records were transformed to z-scores to allow direct comparisons between sites, put on a common time scale, and binned into 200-year time slices. Six different regions were identified based on numerical and spatial analyzes of z-scores: S Iberia and Maghreb, N Iberia, Italy, the Balkans, Turkey, and the Levant, and the overall hydro-climate history of each region was reconstructed. N Iberia is largely decoupled from the five other regions throughout the Holocene. Wetter conditions occur in the five other regions between 8500 and 6100 yr BP. After 6000 yr BP, climate oscillated until around 3000 ± 300 yr BP, which seems to have been the overall driest period in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. In contrast, Italy and N Iberia seem to have remained wetter during this period. In addition, non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) was applied to 18 long, continuous climate z-score records that span the majority of the Holocene. nMDS axes 1 and 2 illustrate the main trends in the z-score data. The first axis captures a long-term development of drier condition in the Mediterranean from 7900 to 3700 yr BP. Rapid shifts occur in nMDS axis 2 at 6700–6300 BP, 4500–4300 BP, and 3500–3300 BP indicating centennial-scale climate change. Our synthesis highlights a dominant south/east versus north/west Mediterranean hydro-climate dipole throughout the Holocene and therefore confirms that there was no single climate trajectory characterizing the whole Mediterranean basin during the last 10 millennia

Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature

28 pages, 6 figures; version submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesGlobal warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO2, is already 0.8{\deg}C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is 'in the pipeline' because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding planetary heat radiation. Maintaining a climate that resembles the Holocene, the world of stable shorelines in which civilization developed, requires rapidly reducing fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Such a scenario is economically sensible and has multiple benefits for humanity and other species. Yet fossil fuel extraction is expanding, including highly carbon-intensive sources that can push the climate system beyond tipping points such that amplifying feedbacks drive further climate change that is practically out of humanity's control. This situation raises profound moral issues as young people, future generations, and nature, with no possibility of protecting their future well-being, will bear the principal consequences of actions and inactions of today's adults

The Red Sea, Coastal Landscapes, and Hominin Dispersals

This chapter provides a critical assessment of environment, landscape and resources in the Red Sea region over the past five million years in relation to archaeological evidence of hominin settlement, and of current hypotheses about the role of the region as a pathway or obstacle to population dispersals between Africa and Asia and the possible significance of coastal colonization. The discussion assesses the impact of factors such as topography and the distribution of resources on land and on the seacoast, taking account of geographical variation and changes in geology, sea levels and palaeoclimate. The merits of northern and southern routes of movement at either end of the Red Sea are compared. All the evidence indicates that there has been no land connection at the southern end since the beginning of the Pliocene period, but that short sea crossings would have been possible at lowest sea-level stands with little or no technical aids. More important than the possibilities of crossing the southern channel is the nature of the resources available in the adjacent coastal zones. There were many climatic episodes wetter than today, and during these periods water draining from the Arabian escarpment provided productive conditions for large mammals and human populations in coastal regions and eastwards into the desert. During drier episodes the coastal region would have provided important refugia both in upland areas and on the emerged shelves exposed by lowered sea level, especially in the southern sector and on both sides of the Red Sea. Marine resources may have offered an added advantage in coastal areas, but evidence for their exploitation is very limited, and their role has been over-exaggerated in hypotheses of coastal colonization

Chemical analysis of acoustically levitated drops by Raman spectroscopy

An experimental apparatus combining Raman spectroscopy with acoustic levitation, Raman acoustic levitation spectroscopy (RALS), is investigated in the field of physical and chemical analytics. Whereas acoustic levitation enables the contactless handling of microsized samples, Raman spectroscopy offers the advantage of a noninvasive method without complex sample preparation. After carrying out some systematic tests to probe the sensitivity of the technique to drop size, shape, and position, RALS has been successfully applied in monitoring sample dilution and preconcentration, evaporation, crystallization, an acid–base reaction, and analytes in a surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy colloidal suspension

Phylogeography of a Land Snail Suggests Trans-Mediterranean Neolithic Transport

Background: Fragmented distribution ranges of species with little active dispersal capacity raise the question about their place of origin and the processes and timing of either range fragmentation or dispersal. The peculiar distribution of the land snail Tudorella sulcata s. str. in Southern France, Sardinia and Algeria is such a challenging case. Methodology: Statistical phylogeographic analyses with mitochondrial COI and nuclear hsp70 haplotypes were used to answer the questions of the species' origin, sequence and timing of dispersal. The origin of the species was on Sardinia. Starting from there, a first expansion to Algeria and then to France took place. Abiotic and zoochorous dispersal could be excluded by considering the species' life style, leaving only anthropogenic translocation as parsimonious explanation. The geographic expansion could be dated to approximately 8,000 years before present with a 95% confidence interval of 10,000 to 3,000 years before present. Conclusions: This period coincides with the Neolithic expansion in the Western Mediterranean, suggesting a role of these settlers as vectors. Our findings thus propose that non-domesticated animals and plants may give hints on the direction and timing of early human expansion routes

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci

Global and local sea level during the Last Interglacial: A probabilistic assessment

The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.Comment: Preprint version of what has since been published in Natur